This articles comes from Casey Stubbs at www.winnersedgetrading.com
The United States Dollar, after a huge year in 2015 is showing signs of weakness.
One look at this USD/JPY Daily Chart and you can see a chink in the armor:
You can see that 2016 has not been nearly as kind to the US Dollar, especially in comparison to the Yen. But the USD is beginning to bounce…
So the question is:
Is this now an opportunity to buy the US Dollar at a discounted price or is this just the beginning of the Goliath’s fall?
Many experts think that the USD has become significantly over-valued and it’s hard to disagree. After all, we’re a nation drowning in debt with a suffering middle class. Every indication of a growing economy, like Unemployment Data, is just smoke and mirrors–the government continuing to prop up numbers that don’t tell the real story.
Yet, virtually every other major economy is not doing much better. And specifically, the Japanese Government takes any opportunity they can to weaken their currency for favorable exportation results.
There is so much fundamental data to sift through and only a fraction of the data is representative of the reality, so I am looking at this on a purely technical level.
And from a purely technical standpoint, the USD/JPY is screaming BUY.
Not only do I think there is a legitimate BUY opportunity, but I think it’s a pretty massive one IF the today closes strong and doesn’t retreat back toward 113.00 (showing signs that a deeper retracement is more likely)
Take a look at the Weekly Chart of USD/JPY:
Here, you can see a very evident zone of support that is likely to prop up the USD/JPY. There is also a clear target area about 500 pips away from the current price.
With a strong Bullish trend coming prior to this sideways market and a Japanese government that loves to weaken their currency; I think this 500 pip opportunity may be the perfect Swing trade to hold onto over the next few days or weeks.
Again, I’d wait for today’s (Wednesday) close to confirm that the pair is not getting beaten back down.
With a strong close, a BUY around 114 could lead to several hundred pips of profitable space.